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One line to say we had a most amusing party at the Portsmouths yesterday. I made the acquaintance of Miss Haldane, whom I have long wished to know, and I am going to tea with her tomorrow. Haldane was most complimentary about my book--which I think he hasn't read by the way. A delightful review in the Athenaeum. Loe had just finished reviewing my book!
Flora lunched to-day and we went out together afterwards. Tomorrow I have a Buddhist Committee lunch. I wrote my review of Lafcadio this morning, the sort of blissful morning when one suddenly realises at the end of a few hours that one has been quite unconscious of the passing Of time.
I'm just going to finish it now. Moll looked charming last night. I Studied my grammar this morning and went to the London Library where I looked through volumes and volumes of Asiatic Societies. I had a very nice evening with the Ritchies--Pinkie Was there and she played the piano, and we talked not wile she played and it was very merry. They are looking very well.
I think they are coming to you for Easter. I came away rather early for I had a lesson at 5. My Pundit was extremely pleased with me, he kept congratulating Me on my proficiency in the Arabic tongue! I think his other pupils must be awful duffers. It is quite extraordinarily interesting to read the Koran with him-and it is such a magnificent book!
He has given me some Arabian Nights for the next time and I have given him some Hafiz poems to read, so we shall see what we shall see. He is extremely keen about the Hafiz book. This morning I stayed in and read some most illuminating articles on Sufyism. There's a lot to know but I guess I'll know some of it before I've done. I expect I shall get my reading ticket to-morrow.
My Pundit brought back my poems yesterday-he is really pleased with them. I asked him if he thought they were worth doing and he replied that indeed he did.
He is full of offers of assistance and wants to read all that I have done, which from a busy man is, I think, the best proof that he likes what he has seen. Arabic flies along-I shall soon be able to read the Arabian Nights for fun. My domino is going to be so nice and it will cost me very little for it is all made of a beautiful piece of white stuff Papa gave me in Algiers.
Lizzie is making it. Give my love to Lisa. Green went in the morning to see Lady Layard, who offered us her gondola to go out and see the arrival of the Emperor.
Dorothy and Arnold walked me home. Green and I started out in a splendid gondola and went nearly to the Lido amidst a crowd of boats. It was very gorgeous for the Municipio appeared in splendid gondolas hung with streamers and emblems and rowed by 8 gondoliers in fancy dresses of different colours. About 3 the Hohenzollern steamed in through the Lido port, a magnificent great white ship with all the sailors dressed in white and standing in lines upon the deck.
The guns fired, the ships in the harbour saluted and all the people cheered. The Hohenzollern anchored nearly opposite the Piazzetta and we saw the King and Queen and a crowd of splendid officers Come up in a steam launch all hung with blue. They went on board the Hohenzollern and presently we saw them all go away again with the Emperor and his two little boys.
We were much amused, and for magnificence there never was anything like a festa with the Ducal Palace for background. It was a very imperial way of arriving to steam up in your gorgeous white ship.
I only wished it had not been that Particular emperor we were welcoming. Green and I went out in a gondola and saw the sun set behind the Euganean Hills. Caroline [Grosvenor] is a delightful companion-we are particularly happy. I had a real busy morning and settled all my summer clothes and ordered a gown at Mrs.
I hope it will be ready before you come as I should like you to pronounce upon it. Tomorrow I intend to spend an hour or two over my Hafiz things and get them all straight. I went to the British Museum on my bicycle this morning. It adds a great joy to my studies and I feel all the brisker for it.
The children have had a tennis court marked in the square. I am just going out to see! They are looking blooming and are such angels! However we will try not to be too foolish about our family. I was invited to Lady Lockwood's dance but I really couldn't be bothered to hunt up a chaperon and go to it. About the children's flower gowns--we finally decided that the cheapest and best thing we could do was to trim the gowns with field flowers artificial of course , buttercups daisies and forget-me-nots.
We have cut a sort of ruche of tulle round the bottom of the skirt with little bunches of flowers tucked into it, and hung flowers from the neck and from the waist in little streams--on the whole I think this plan has made as much show as possible for as little money and the dresses look quite charming.
I hope I've done right about it. The children were extremely anxious to have their gowns very flowery. We had a very merry dinner and started out about ten, along the embankment, the Strand and through the City to the Tower Bridge, then home by Holborn Viaduct and oxford Street. The Strand was pretty full but the City quite empty, all brilliantly lighted and the asphalt pavement excellent good going.
It was a delicious night with a little moon and I enjoyed it extremely. We went back to supper with the Tyrrells and I was not in till 1: However I went off after breakfast to the Museum where I asked for a book they' hadn't got! It is rather funny that I should have exhausted the whole British Museum in a fortnight, but it's also a bore, for I wanted a nice French translation and now I shall have to fall back on the original Persian which they have.
I have told Lizzie about the bonnet and cloak so you will find them ready. Our party last night was a great success, the babies looked charming.
I was much complimented upon their appearance. It was most amusing being a chaperon. I sat on a bench and watched them dancing round and knew just what you felt like at Oxford. I think I got at the meaning of it with the help of a Persian dictionary, but a Latin translation is not so clear to me as it might be. Audley Square was amusing. I am going down to Caroline in Kent for Whitsuntide. I want to bicycle down on Saturday if I can get an escort, it's only 17 miles, and send my luggage by train.
London is beginning to feel very Whitsuntidy. Beatrice Clementi came to see me this afternoon just before I went out. She is to be married in November.
It is very close here and has been raining a good deal think of ordering a tasteful costume for Ascot consisting of a short skirt, a waterproof and a large umbrella. Florence and I arranged the flowers at 95 and did the dinner table at 90 most elegantly--I dine there to-night. Then I had a long talk with Auntie Mary, who seems very brisk and well. I took Florence with me to try on my gown and we walked together in the Square until a storm of rain came on and drove us in.
Auntie Maisie asks me to dine with her Friday and go to a ball, and Maurice is to come to dinner if she can possibly find a place for him, and at any rate to come in directly after dinner and go to the ball too.
We have had a most delightful day. We started about He had a Carpenter niece with him. Then we went back and saw all the races over the railing of the Royal enclosure, which is just opposite the winning post. The family had small bets on, mostly unsuccessful I didn't bet, I need not say. At the end of all we had tea in the Guards' tent and came home very comfortably, getting in about 7: I am going again to-morrow.
My gown was a dream and was much admired. I am going this evening with Auntie Mary and Florence and the Johnsons to sit out of doors in the Imperial Institute and listen to the band-rather nice as it is very hot. Florence and I did amuse ourselves so much! What a dear Lord Granville is. Thank you very much for your letter and will you thank the little girls for me, I have no time to write to them to-day.
Hugo came up in great form and we started off to Lord's together, but on the way discovered that he had lost the blue tassel on his umbrella, which saddened us dreadfully! So we tried in many shops to get one, and failed alas! However we were Comforted at Lord's when we saw that many many Eton boys had no tassel! We had the most excellent places, we carried our lunch with us and supplemented it with green-gages, after eating which we both made fervent wishes as they were the first we had eaten this year.
I asked Hugo what he had wished, to which he replied, "Why I wished Eton might win--what in the world is there to wish for besides? He was such a darling! I saw Heinemann this morning. He was extremely pleasant. I told him a lot about the book and he expressed a desire to see it.
So at any rate it will have a reading. I shall send him the poems and preface from Berlin, Mr. Strong cannot come to town and has not yet finished the preface.
Her first letter is sent from the station at York. I can't conceive what I am doing in this station, nor why I am going away. I wish I were stopping quietly at home. All sorts of smart people on this platform! One begins to realise what the world is like when one gets to York, doesn't one.
Never mind, I'll be smart too presently! The reason why I had not sent the poems to H. Strong has not yet sent me back the preface. I hope I may get it by the next bag. Meantime I have sent the 30 poems with their notes to H. It was a very fine show. We drove to the Schloss in the glass coach and were saluted by the guard when we arrived.
We felt very swell! Then we waited for a long time with all the other dips. We all hastily arranged one another's trains and marched in procession while the band played the march out of Lohengrin. The Emperor and Empress were standing on a dais at the end of the room and we walked through a sort of passage made by rows and rows of pages dressed in pink. She introduced me and then stood aside while I made two curtseys. The Princess Frederic Leopold's ladies asked when I was going to be introduced to her.
We have been skating all the afternoon with surprising energy, A very ridiculous thing happened-I had retired into a secluded corner and put my muff down to make a centre round which to skate a figure, when suddenly I was aware of a short fat German gentleman arriving into the middle of my figure on his back.
He picked up my muff and himself and handed them both to me, so to speak, with a low bow. We propose if the frost lasts making a big party, sledging down to Potsdam and skating there. I hope it will come off, it Would be very amusing.
A great 'Probe' at the Kaiserhof to which all the people who were going to dance at the Court Ball came. After the lesson was over there were a couple of waltzes, so I offed with my coat and danced too. There is a rather nice sort of variant of the 'pas de quatre' which they call the 'pas de patineur' which I quickly learnt.
Accordingly we went off by ourselves and sat very comfortably with Countess Keller in the second row of chairs-no one might sit in the front row even when the royalties were not in the box. All the Embassy and a lot of the Court people were with us, the Emperor and Empress were in a little box at the side. The play was very well done. The Falstaff excellent and the whole thing beautifully staged. There was no pause till the end of the second act when there was a long entr'acte.
Countess Keller bustled away and presently came hurrying back and whispered something to Knesebeck and Egloffstein, two of the Court people, and they came and told F. So off we went rather trembling, under the escort of Countess K. We made deep curtseys and kissed the Empress's hand, and then we all sat down, F.
It was rather formidable though they were extremely kind. The Emperor talked nearly all the time; he tells us that no plays of Shakespeare were ever acted in London and that we must have heard tell that it was only the Germans who had really studied or really understood Shakespeare. One couldn't contradict an Emperor, so we said we had always been told so.
Egloffstein's chair broke in the middle of the party and he came flat on to the ground which created a pleasing diversion-I was so glad it wasn't mine! After about 20 minutes the Empress got up, we Curtseyed to her, shook hands with the Emperor. Florence thanked him very prettily for sending for us and we bowed ourselves out. Florence said she felt shy but she looked perfectly self-possessed and had the prettiest little air in the world as she sat talking to the Emperor.
I felt rather frightened, but I did not mind much as I knew I need do nothing but follow Florence's lead. The Empress sits very upright and is rather alarming. He flashes round from one person to the other and talks as fast as possible and is not alarming at all. We go again to-night to the second part.
The Court Ball on Wednesday was a fine show. We were asked for eight o'clock and at a quarter past we formed up for waiting.
The ambassadresses sat on a line of chairs to the left of the throne in the Weiser Saal, and we stood meekly behind them. After about half an hour someone tapped tapped on the floor with a wand and in came a long procession of pages followed by the 'Kaiser Paar' and all the 'Furstliche Personen.
The room was almost empty and the few people that were there were dancing the 'trois temps'--one is only allowed to dance the 'deux temps' when the Empress is there. It was a very delicious half-hour for the floor is peerless and all these officers dance so well. Then followed the gavotte which Florence danced very prettily. The house is all upside down for the ball. Wherever one goes one finds lines and lines of waiters arranging tables.
We can seat people at supper. There are to be tables in all the ball rooms, the Chancery ante-room and even the big bedroom. We all intend to bring our partners up to the big bedroom which makes a delightful supper-room. Florence and I went into the kitchen this morning and inspected the food.
I never saw so many eatables together. Florence and I were of course as it was in our own house covered with bows and loaded with flowers. There were supper tables in all the drawing-rooms--it looked extremely nice. I went to tea with Marie von Bunsen and stayed till past 7. She is most interesting. The Court Ball on Wednesday was much nicer than the first one.
The Emperor wore a gorgeous Austrian uniform in honour of an Austrian Archduke who was there--the brother of the man who is heir to the throne. He will be Emperor himself someday as the heir is sickly and unmarried. The Emperor William is disappointing when one sees him close; he looks puffy and ill and I never saw anyone so jumpy.
He is never still a second while he is talking. Uncle Frank is in a great jig about Crete. He thinks there is going to be red war and an intervention of the Powers and all sorts of fine things. Florence and I spent the most heavenly morning at the 'Haupt Probe'.
Since then we have been bicycling round the house for exercise as it is raining and we could not go out. Spring Rice and Lord Granville dined with us. After dinner we played hide and seek till we were so hot we could play no longer and finished up the evening with pool and baccarat. I went to the National Gallery to see the modern pictures. I had been reading about modern German painters and knew what I wanted to look at. Should like to go out but I mayn't go by myself.
So I suppose I can't! We were all sent for in the entr'acte. We had a very agreeable tea with the Emperor and Empress and her sister. It was like an act out of another historical drama--but a modern one. A sheaf of telegrams were handed to the Emperor as we sat at tea. He and Uncle fell into an excited conversation in low voices; we talked on to the Empress trying to pretend we heard nothing but catching scraps of the Emperor's remarks, " Crete. The Empress kept looking up at him anxiously; she is terribly perturbed about it all and no wonder for he is persuaded that we are all on the brink of war.
My sister Mary Lascelles died on April 3rd, after three days' illness. Her death made a terrible gap in Gertrude's life. I have been to Clarence to-day-it was no use sitting and moping so I thought I had better make myself useful if I could. She was at home with us all the rest of the year.
On the 29th December Gertrude and her brother Maurice left home for Southampton, to embark on a voyage round the world. Gertrude kept a diary letter on the voyage. She posts from Jamaica, Guatemala, San Francisco--wherever she had an opportunity. It is not worth while reproducing all that she and Maurice saw on this well-known route, which has so often been described. They enjoyed it all, taking part in the unpretentious diversions of a voyage. They asked the Captain's permission to mark out a golf course on board, which had a great success.
I am first-favourite at present. It was most luxuriously arranged by nature. In September, after a delightful two months in the West of Scotland--we had taken the Manse at Spean Bridge for the summer--Gertrude is at Redcar again, enchanted to return to her books.
Hugo has been playing golf and we are now going to have a game of racquets before settling down to our work. Oh, how I wish I were going to have a month of this. The bliss of being really at work is past words. Herbert Pease stands for Darlington, I see in the evening papers. Saturday 22nd September, I'm going to Rounton on Sunday. I have been at the Infirmary all the afternoon. I've got another engagement--to lecture at the High School. I've been arranging about my lantern slides.
By the way, confided to Lisa that she felt quite anxious about Elsa because she thought we were all so beautiful and so clever that we couldn't all go on living.
Elsa won't mind being the 'offer' to the jealous gods, I hope! That angel of a Mr. Vaughan Williams has found me a real Persian-at least he is an Afghan and his name is Satdar and he speaks beautiful Persian. I have written to him to-day. They are rather a blow to me, I admit. He is one of the most lovable and livable with people I have ever come across. To her sister Elsa.
I thought the braid a little too braidy. A modification of it would be lovely. I should have no braid on the coat just the seams strapped. I went to Prince's this morning and skated. Next time I'm in London I shall have a few lessons there.
It's silly not to be able to skate well when everybody does. My new clothes are very dreamy. You will scream with delight when you see me in them!
I have sent off the purple dress and a grey one which is nine guineas and very nice indeed. It has a dark coat and everything suitable to Elsa. My only doubt is whether the black trimming is not too black. There is another most elegant elephant grey costume strapped with grey, but the coat is quite tight fitting so that it might not be so becoming to Elsa.
I write from a sofa. This morning at Prince's I fell violently on my knees and when I shortly after took my skates off, I found I couldn't walk. Maclagan, however, says I must lie up for a few days. I'm writing to all the amusing people to come and see me, having dressed the part well in a Japanese tea gown. I shall beguile the time with my pundits while I'm invalided.
I've told them all to come. It is so provoking because I was getting to skate really well. A most successful tour altogether.
In Athens they find Dr. Hogarth and go the Museum, " where Mr. Hogarth showed us his recent finds-pots Of B. Doesn't that Make one's brain reel? They listen with breathless interest to his lecture on the Acropolis: I never saw anything better done. He will look smart, bless him. Then to Constantinople, and back again to England in May. Chirol now Sir Valentine Chirol. They go to Nuremberg and Rothenburg on the way, enjoying themselves ecstatically everywhere.
She writes] " this is really too charming. You never met a more delightful travelling party. Florence is in the seventh heaven all the time. Chirol, and in fact all of us, endlessly cheerful and delighted with everything.
These letters on a subject now almost hackneyed are too long to insert here. She was not, and did not pretend to be, an expert on music but she cared for it very much. Hugo, who was an admirable musician, was conservative in his tastes and was at first prepared to be on the defensive with regard to Wagner. Gertrude also records some personal social experiences. Frau Cosima has asked us all to a party on Friday evening. The restaurant was crowded when the door opened and in came the whole Wagner family in procession, Frau Cosima first on Siegfried's arm.
There was a great clapping as she passed down the room to her table. This morning about half past 8 came a message from the Grand Duke [of Hesse] asking us whether we could be at the theatre at 9 as he would show us the stage.
We bustled up and arrived only a few minutes late. It was most entertaining; we were taken into every corner, above and below. We descended through trap doors and mounted into Valhalla. We saw all the properties, and all the mechanism of the Rhine maidens; we explored the dressing rooms, sat in the orchestra and rang the Parsifal bells!
The Grand Duke was extremely cheerful and agreeable--he's quite young--and of course everyone was hats off and anxious to show us all we wanted to see. It's a very extraordinary place, the stage; the third scene of Siegfried was set. We shall feel quite at home when we see it to-night. Hugo is delighted with it all. He really is one of the most delightful people in the world. The Harrachs, you will be glad to hear, thought him very beautiful.
Well, I'll tell you--it's awful! I think if I had known exactly what was before me I should not have faced it, but fortunately did not, and I look back on it with unmixed satisfaction--and forward to other things with no further apprehension. We left here on Friday at 2: Two German men turned up at the Refuge.
Madame Castillan gave us a very good supper and I went at once to bed. I got off at 4: In the afternoon, there arrived a young Englishman called Turner with Rodier as guide and a porter. I went out to watch the beautiful red light fading from the snows and rocks. The Meije looked dreadfully forbidding in the dusk. When I came in I found that Mathon had put my rug in a corner of the shelf which was the bed of us all and what with the straw and my cloak for a pillow I made myself very comfortable.
We were packed as tight as herrings, Mr. Turner next to me, then the two Germans and Rodier. Mathon and the porters lay on the ground beneath us. Our night lasted from 8 till 12, but I didn't sleep at all. Marius lighted a match and looked at his watch. It was ten o'clock. It seemed an odd view of 10 p. We all got up soon after 12 and I went down to the river and washed a little. It was a perfect night, clear stars and the moon not yet over the hills.
We left half an hour later, 1 a. Mathon carried a lantern till we got on to the snow when it was light enough with only the moon. This was the first time I had put on the rope. We had about three hours up very nice rock, a long chimney first and then most pleasant climbing. Then we rested again for a few minutes. I had been in high feather for it was so easy, but ere long my hopes were dashed!
We had about two hours and a half of awfully difficult rock, very solid fortunately, but perfectly fearful. There were two places which Mathon and Marius literally pulled me up like a parcel. I didn't a bit mind where it was steep up, but round corners where the rope couldn't help me!
And it was absolutely sheer down. The first half-hour I gave myself up for lost. You see, I had practically never been on a rock before. However, I didn't let on and presently it began to seem quite natural to be hanging by my eyelids over an abyss. It was not till I was over it that Mathon told me that it was the dreaded place. The Germans got up a quarter of an hour later having climbed up the rock a different way.
We left at 9 and reached the summit at It is a red flat stone, almost perpendicular, some 15 feet high, up which you swarm as best you may with your feet against the Meije, and you sit astride, facing the Meije, on a very pointed crest. I sat there while Marius and Mathon went on and then followed them up an overhanging rock of 20 feet or more. The rope came in most handy--! We stayed on the summit until It was gorgeous, quite cloudless. I went to sleep for half-an-hour. It's a very long way up but it's a longer way down-unless you take the way Mathon's axe took.
The cord by which it was tied to his wrist broke on the Cheval Rouge and it disappeared into space. There's a baddish place going down the Grand Pic. The guides fastened a double rope to an iron bolt and let Mr. Turner and me down on to a tiny ledge on which we sat and surveyed the Aiguille d'Arve with La Grave in the foreground. Then was a very nasty bit without the double rope-how anyone gets down those places I can't imagine. Here comes the worst place on the whole Meije.
Then Mathon vanished, carrying a very long rope, and I waited. Presently I felt a little tug on the rope. There were two little humps to hold on to on an overhanging rock and there La Grave beneath and there was me in mid-air and Mathon round the corner holding the rope tight, but the rope was sideways of course-that's my general impression of those ten minutes. Added to which I thought at the time how very well I was climbing and how odd it was that I should not be afraid. The worst was over then, and the most tedious part was all to come.
It took us three hours to get from the Grand Pic to the Pic Central-up and down over endless dents. There was no difficulty, but there was also no moment when you had not to pay the strictest attention. I felt rather done when we got to the Pic Central. There was an hour of ice and rock till at last we found ourselves on the Glacier du Tabuchet and with thankfulness I put on my skirt again.
It was then 3 and we got in at 6: The glacier was at first good then much crevassed. When I got in I found everyone in the Hotel on the doorstep waiting for me and M. Juge let off crackers, to my great surprise. I went to bed and knew no more till 6 this morning, when I had five cups of tea and read all your letters and then went to sleep again until ten.
I'm really not tired but my shoulders and neck and arms feel rather sore and stiff and my knees are awfully bruised. She comes back to England in the middle of September, well pleased, as shown by her letters, with her progress in climbing.
Your map is somewhat out of date. Poland has seen significant rises in birth rates over the past few years. Our crude birth rate is now Additionally, we have not seen a decline in birth rates in , though the total births did rise slower than in This is likely due to A a strong economy and B increased incentives for child-rearing. Real household income really took a deep dive:.
Fertility trends are quite sensitive to income in societies which are not very religious. In the US, child support was not great from an economic PoV, but they always had a large religious population which propped up the birth rate regardless.
As atheism spreads, particularly among the under which is the population that matters for fertility, for obvious reasons , this is now declining in the US, too. France has not been very religious for many years now, and neither has Scandinavia, but their economic systems encourage natality.
For poorer countries such as Poland or Russia, temporary economic fortunes matter more since the ground-level welfare support is still quite modest, at best. Russia may be more religious than many countries, but it is my impression that religion is still quite shallow there, same as in Poland. It is often an identity marker for people and religious communion peaks around various holidays but day-to-day religious influence seems to me to be low in Russia.
I could be wrong, but that is my impression at least. Israel is a hyper-religious society by contrast. Even the secular Jews pump out 2. Fertility seems to be crashing easier than it is building. Real wages are already increasing by a healthy margin according to Rosstat. Korea is going the East Asian way in an extreme manner.
From , thousands births in up to , last year. As has ben pointed out on this blog several times Korea seems to be a role model for China. Russia has relatively low debt, so the debt-to-GDP ratio is less important. This a favourite of open borders proponents, but it is a theory with no basis in reality. No advanced society has ever experienced a real shortage of people willing to work.
With automation, people living longer, etc…there is no shortage of available and willing workers. It is mostly light mental work in offices using equipment and systems. There is no way one can run out of people willing to do that kind of work. I have actually thought about that — seeing some of our fellow citizens one almost has to.
But with proper incentives, ability to work and earn good living, form families, large percentage of those who appear as end-of-liners can prosper. I am not optimistic, not really. And it might succeed, definitely in the core parts of the West.
The current government is the first ever Polish government doing anything about this. They were saying it was absolute last time to do anything in Unfortunately, I doubt that. Well, we are already hearing that tomatoes are rotting in the fields, or something… The enterpreneurs are complaining that they have to raise the salaries and are less competetive — in the marker where the EU attacks Polish companies in every industry where we are achieve success The transportation is the most recent example.
How our companies dare to dominate the market?? We were supposed to be only a source of a cheap labour! Three years ago, the economist Henri Sterdyniak sounded the alarm bell. Mr Hollande, under pressure to cut the deficit, broke a taboo: Yet those policies also risk alienating those families by fuelling the feeling that they are bearing most of the welfare costs while not receiving much in return, Mr Sterdyniak said this week. But fertility is less pressing an issue than pensions and Mr Macron is unlikely to reverse the move away from the generous postwar family policy.
The most pro-life thing a person can do is to have children. In the past, parents raised large families on less than we have today. It did not end well. Increasing the number of unwanted children is not something that should be supported. Sure, you can have a Jubilee and strike the debt from the ledger, but that just means that the counter-parties to that debt have to eat the loss.
You can monetize the debt, but that destroys savings and purchasing power. You can pay off the debt, but that means deferred consumption and deflation. So while debt may seem to be some shadowy and inchoate phantasm created on a balance sheet and having no real existence, once it is generated it cannot be gotten rid of without some kind of pain.
Debt allows you to consume present production before its been paid for, but that only leaves a deficit in future production. That deficit will be covered by one of the above methods. It cannot be avoided any more than the law of gravity or the conservation of energy. The age-dependency ratio is real and significant; that fact cannot be obviated just because open-borders activists would fain abuse it as a cheap rationale for bringing in immigrants.
Never mind the immigrants, just forget about them for a moment; the age-dependency ratio still exists. It is essentially no different than a pension system. And that is the situation the entire developed word will shortly find itself in. The pro-natalist policy of the late s was an immediate but temporary success. With two billion Africans coming our way by mid-century some of these statistics will need emendation. Comparing Russian births to France and UK — those countries are only high birth-rate because of their Muslim populations.
I would have preferred a UK full of Brits with a falling population, the place is overcrowded as it is. UK and France should not be your population models. Not surprising when the child benefit for three kids in UK is equal to a full time nurses salary in Poland. The difficulty is with an aging population pyramid, is that there will be a greater tax burden on people who are working, as there is a larger dependent population. Also you seem to go offtopic and start talking about immigration.
That is a separate topic to discussion of fertility rates. If the above is an accurate statement and we drop 0. China could very well afford to lose some people; it can barely feed itself. Northern Europe has still high birthrates compared to other parts of the developed world, such as East Asia. A lot of it is just under replacement level. Ireland has 2 children per women, France 2, Iceland 1.
By comparison, South Korea has a total fertility rate of 1. So there will a smaller pool of people in the country as proportion of the population of child-bearing age when this cohort hit their 20s i. The situations are somewhat analogous. The highest birthrate fertility superstar regions in Russia are the ones where the vast majority of the population are not Russians. But according to the blog-author above, taking out the top regions only impacts fertility rates by 0.
The mainstream population in Israel are almost equally scared of high Haredi and Muslim birth-rates. The Haredim and Muslims as a demographic threat and a danger for the country as the whole. It would be interesting if the same occurred in other conflict zones. The Republic has also been experiencing a baby boom, with increasing birth rates and overall fertility rates. Despite this, the total fertility rate is still below replacement. This increase is primarily fuelled by non-Irish immigration — in , a quarter of all children born in the Republic were born to mothers who had immigrated from other countries.
So I am not so sure that the native Irish fertility rate is significantly in excess of East Asian ones. Consequently, births increased from 16,, in to 17,, births in , before declining to 17,, this year. So quite an expected adjustment, I think. In the great depression, the fertility rate of the United States fell, because people were worried about having children that they could not support.
When conditions got better, people started having more children again. On the other hand, when elites demand that they know better than anyone else how many children people should have, when they create population booms either through pro-natalist policies, or by importing the surplus population from the third-world, they ALWAYS create poverty for the masses and profits for the few.
Which is the whole idea. If conditions improve, they will have more kids. Their focus is on anti-abortion and anti-homosexuality, and both efforts are working quite well, obviously. Native American people did. As did many ethnic groups around China, including the white European ones that used to inhabit Central Asia. In other words, Russia is returning to its place as a normal European country. This was a good article on a trend hitting some of Northern Europe; long term cohabitation this is given a legal status like marriage in some places and comparison to marriage and effects on children.
Anatoly, Did you mention the decline in sperm count in more advanced nations as a partial cause of declining birthrates? My apologies if you did. Regarding discarding debt, it depends on who the devalued capital owners are. Yes, I and my friends will never loan them again, but their productive economy is what it was before, actually a lot better without the debt payments. Long-term cross-border or even cross-continent debt simply makes no sense and is unenforceable.
It is not the number of workers that matters, but the income and taxes they generate. In a well managed economy with growing incomes, succeeding generations make more money and previous pensions are manageable. Our problem is not the worker-pensioner ratio, but that workers are not paid enough compared to the promised pensions. The way to fix it is by raising incomes. And you do that by controlling labor supply cut out mass migration. If you get to the point that native society only has 2 workers for each retiree we are nowhere close to that , then we can increase incentives for people to work longer, do part-time work schemes, work smarter, etc….
It would take away from their current wealth and dominance. This is a pattern that has repeated throughout history: It will this time too. The notion seems bewildering to me; the cultural, political and structural differences are vast. Many groups have been psyched out by the impact of the modernity, and now the most advanced civilizations are themselves undergoing disintegration as a result of a toxic culture that is little more than a byproduct of the corporate drive for profit maximization.
It would take too much space to explain it all here one hopes that Ron Unz, in his wisdom, will commission an article one day explaining what has happened , but to anyone who has lived through the Western transition from the days of demographic surplus to the current demographic deficit, it is obvious why the West and Russia are dying, and hence it is pretty clear what kinds of measures are needed t0 restore the fertility of the European peoples.
That such measures have not already been taken seems conclusive evidence that the European peoples are ruled by treasonous elites engaged in the destruction of their own people, who are being replaced very rapidly by people from elsewhere, Asia and the Middle East now, but increasingly in the future from Africa.
I disagree, and for the simple reason that this extremely low fertility has spread with ease to several non-European societies as well as those European countries most resistant to the multiculti menace.
Even in the Middle East you have countries like Iran or the Western part of Turkey having exactly the same problem. Give your head a shake. The Romanian pro-natalist poicy mostly led to a huge number of unwanted births which then ended up in orphanages:.
They probably also had a huge dysgenic effect on the Romanian population. Who is more likely to have more children when you outlaw abortions? They have more than 3 million Syrians. They are also increasingly having diverse athletes:.
This could be interpreted by TV being proxy of well-being ie. Maybe even taht wouldbe better spent money that in welfare programs in terms of desired effect, i. It was already close to the US in or …. I disagree, and for the simple reason that this extremely low fertility has spread with ease to several non-European societies. I have long ago seen some mortgage ads in Hungary which showed a family with an only child. It seemed strange to me. They can sell anything with tits or kids, as they say.
Why not have two or three or more… like five? The family instantly turned happy by buying a home on mortgage is not quite realistic anyway. How much would it cost to encourage banks to buy big family ads?
Maybe a phone call from a minister could accomplish it? Here is one of their descendants Turkish model, Kivanc Dogu — definitely looks mixed:.
Today, in England, they teach kindergarteners the delights of fellatio. As a result, in England one third of all children born were conceived out of wedlock, and one fifth were born out of wedlock. At the same time, pregnancy of unmarried girls was stigmatized. In springtime, the only pretty ring time, When birds do sing, hey ding a ding, ding; Sweet lovers love the spring. My mother, clearing out her papers just before she died, handed me a bundle of old photos, including one of my kindergarten class.
I stood in the middle of the row, squeezed next to the prettiest girl you could imagine. In other words, pretty certainly a bastard. Now we kill them all and accuse anyone who objects of criminal misogyny. Abortion rates have been going down in all of the European parts of the ex-USSR for the last decade or so, and the marriages are slightly on the rise the last few years. The Kurds may be not as distinct culturally to the Turks as the immigrants in the West are to the netives, but saying that non-Western countries are spared of that fate of cultural replacement is wrong.
Mind you, I am the complete opposite of a supporter of the current mass migration and destruction of the West. I suppose this is a marginally better approach. However, I recall reading somewhere that the US has more stringent definitions on what counts as infant mortality e. Otherwise west of the Urals is pretty safe. What is going on in the Tuvan, Khanti, Buryat, Evenk, et al.
They almost have Latin American levels of violence. If so that is good news. The contrast in population density between Cherbourg and Portsmouth is striking as you leave the ferry in England. On the French side, you drive to Cherbourg on an uncrowded dual carriageway.
Get off onto the M27 in England and all three motorway lanes are busy. Does France have anything like local reporting of births? Italy is a sad case. Full of good-looking thirtysomethings, nice clothes, nice flat, nice car, no children. Not black immigrants, Talha, black slaves. Same in Europe, except the women having the most children are not themselves, for the most part, native born. Mothers from Libya had the highest average birth rate of 5.
This is genocide with population replacement. And anyone who points that out is a labeled a racist, misogynist, anti-feminist, male chauvinist pig by the treasonous elite.
Or is the elite not treasonous but just stupid? Quite frankly, I am nto that sure, because 1 not all immigrants are muslims 2 there is no official data. And I have done the calculation some decade ago. The dependency ratio has always been rising, productivity has also always risen to negate any issues. The Chinese government furnishes then with official ID with false dobs. Though the Ottomans controlled plenty of territory that included Black areas such that Blacks, Arabs could travel relatively freely within their lands.
So, I agree that the majority would definitely have been from slave imports. Correct, they were absorbed over time into the general population. One of the people I descend from who is also a Shiah Imam was born of a Nubian freed-woman:.
Yup — Turks used to be big on European concubines. Many of the Ottoman elites had children from European women. The association is more accurately from when Europeans were selling Slavic people to the Muslim world. Slavs were some of the last people to become Christian and they were also Orthodox when they did convert so it was open season on them for a good while: The slaves they traded came mostly from Eastern Europe and Central Asia and were acquired from slave markets or by raiding the unprotected coastlines of the Black Sea and the disintegrating Byzantine Empire.
While Western Christians were nominally protected, Christians of the Eastern Rite were still considered fair game and slaves also came from the Greek islands which were under the control of the Venetians and Genoese….
Genoese traders sold Greek Orthodox Christians until the late fourteenth century, when the Genoese government finally banned the practice. So prevalent were the slaves from Central Asia that Tartar became the generic term for slave. Why would the government have any involvement in what people do? The Party is first and foremost in it for themselves, not for the anyone else. The abortion rate in Russia is still one of the highest in the world. Significantly more than double the abortion rate in the United States — and 2 to 4 times the rate of countries like Netherlands, Germany Belgium, Switzerland , but it has fallen very massively.
However, there is a debate about whether the official statistic are reliable, as they do not count illegal abortions. Unlike in the West where abortion mainly is conducted with teenagers , it is primarily amongst women aged years. As a result, abortion in Russia has less impact on birthrates, as it usually takes place in couples who are delaying their children.
Normal countries should not tolerate abortion at all. It is an inherently depraved event and is rejected by any healthy society. To add to my above comment where the conclusion was omitted, as shown in the studies — religion is not really a factor in lowering abortion rates, whether in Russia or in foreign countries the countries with the least abortions are very secular Western European ones like Netherlands — even in Germany the abortion rate is times lower than in Russia.
But there is a lot of information on the subject here:. More heavy handed population adjusting from the CCP. China seems like the type to turn to science for a solution. Bio-engineering, artificial births, designer babies, children born to and raised directly by the government. To add to my above comment where the conclusion was omitted, as shown in the studies — religion is not really a factor in lowering abortion rates, whether in Russia or in foreign countries.
Would that still be true if we controlled for contraception usage? I somehow doubt it. I have been told that contraceptions are far less common in eastern Europe than in the West, where practically every young woman is on the pill. As for-the-record was pointing out this elides the question of who is having those babies in NW Europe. You have to cobble together the data from other proxies. But it seems to be the case that these higher fertilities are because these nations are seriously pozzed.
You are much, much better off being Japan with your gals popping 1. That model is a SWAG. And their nations are corrupted to boot. Though ironically, in the DX universe, China is once again ruled by Western neo-colonialists in alliance with local comprador elites, an arrangement enforced by London-based BellTower PMC.
If China is to deliver our awesome cyberpunk future it will probably be without that particular element. According to figures from the statistics agency, there were But the age-specific data is important when calculating demographic trends. For several years in the early s, Beijing kept the public and policymakers in the dark about the fertility rate when it dropped sharply. In the s, five contributors to national pension funds were helping to support one retired person but today, that ratio stands at 2.
The Illuminati died out long ago, surely. So Carrol Quigley believed and so Niall Ferguson assures in his latest opus. If the Illuminati continue to exist, I doubt they would be happy if we were analyzing their demographic component on a free access webzine anyway.
Iran had a huge problem with population growth a while back, and its government embarked on a campaign to lower the birth rate. Seems to have paid off too well. Well Anatoly, now the Russians just need to learn to drive a car then all will be well.
But it s thoughgt provoking that birth rates are dropping, have Russian men turned gay or something? There is certainly nothing wrong with the broads..
They end up getting most of the children born to conservatives. The whole thing had become a circus. Especially after the nonsense of the election. Does anyone really believe that anyone in the Democrat-Republican party actually cares about the country?
Or the people that vote them in? You just had a government shutdown because they were more concerned about the welfare of illegal aliens than the US citizens they are paid to represent. They lead to massive immigration and a transvaluation of all social values to those of the immigrants. Suppose, for example, that anyone over 25 but not yet married would have their tax rate raised by 10 percentage points.
Surely, young marriages would quickly skyrocket. Now suppose that anyone over 30 without a child also had their tax rate raised by 10 percentage points. Surely, first births to young couples would also quickly skyrocket. Adjust a few parameters here and there, and pretty much any reasonable level of TFR should be easily achievable, while simultaneously generating generating extra billions in cash for building monuments to the leaders responsible.
The Chinese government probably thinks they already have plenty of Chinese, but if they ever decide they really need more, they could certainly produce as many as desired…. This is an unbelievably bizarre statement. How else does one go extinct other than by not reproducing? The fall of the Roman Empire was a demographic collapse. So indeed is the fall of every empire, but Roman affords us the largest and most well documented example of this kind. The city of Rome itself held 1.
In the days of Alaric it was home to 25,—the population of a village. The Chinese birthrate is all the Chinese not just the ones living in China. They already have a decent size population in China so they can afford to lose a few million to emigration.
India is in the same situation. In Hungary the late communist government from around introduced a number of great incentives. Their effects were clearly measurable, nearly restoring fertility to replacement levels, but then the effects petered out after and dropped to new lows. This is often cited by liberals that such measures could not possibly work long term. Except… the maternity incentives were inflated away by the early s, so little wonder they became ineffective by then.
Then in a brutal means test was introduced, eliminating most support for much of the middle class. This destroyed confidence in the system. Which indeed did happen. The economy is still weak. Wages are still low. Foreign mostly EU companies, which bought up most of the Hungarian economy for peanuts in the s, are pumping out more money and have been doing so since the s than the EU subventions we get.
The large multinationals also dominate the labor market, keeping wages low. In people thought he might lose the election. Then people were not confident he would win the one.
Also his measures are geared towards the middle and upper middle classes. Fertility is surely less dysgenic in Hungary than, say, in Romania. Even something that should be non-controversial and routine like deporting illegals becomes a nightmare in the case of a democracy if powerful players want illegal immigration. The US is a classic example of everything that can go wrong with a democracy.
On the other side was every other candidate saying that would be racist and that they instead want to represent illegals and foreigners. You literally had candidates campaigning to keep illegal immigrants in the country.
Without an identity a country like America is very vulnerable to that argument. Has maternity capital not a cheap project to do on a nation-wide level even had statistically significant impact in Russia?
There are studies that claim it increased fertility rates by 0. But if we give it an ethnic angle, fertility-rates have gone up, but not more if we discount non-Russian populated regions of the country than in the Baltics and Belarus and only slightly more than Ukraine. The clustering of the whole region together, despite the economic and policy differences, is the interesting part, which makes it seem like fertility rate is acting independently of particularly government policies.
This tax change might work in a country with very strong central authority and punishment for disobedience like Saudi Arabia. But in modern democracies such as Russia or the United States of America — such unfair taxation policies would lead to mass rioting of millions of singles on the streets. It would be the first time I would be motivated to storm the palace, about the notion of different taxation dependent on my relationship status.
I believe it was discriminatory taxation policies which led to the original American revolution. But the contrary issue is that religiosity is not the same in Russia or much of Europe in general , as in America or the Middle East. Religion has more symbolic and ritual value — but there is not much evidence of impact on behaviour.
To put it bluntly, the average religion-identifying people are not behaving like American Mormons. People are living a normal secular life-style, with religion as a more symbolic identity. The somewhat more conservative attitudes on things like homosexuality themselves are not that much to do with religion either — in Soviet secularism, these social attitudes were more conservative still.
Stalin tried it by outlawing abortion in the s. Women turned to folk miscarriage-inducing methods that killed or crippled so many of them that the government eventually legalized abortion again. When legalized, it was done without any anesthesia by the most sadistic and abusive medical personnel imaginable. Traditionally, a lot of cultures made fatherhood as proxy for adulthood such that promotion, etc. In addition, mortality rates fall which is attributed to Gorbachev anti-alcohol campaign.
But the serious proposal above, which is proposed to have a significant skyrocket impact, is a different level to such light tax-reliefs — it is like Jizya tax on single people. There is enough argument against taxing higher earners progressive taxation , and adding extra tax brackets for singles seems another level of government coercion.
Even contraception was available back then. I wrote about financial incentives, and my quoted paragraph was about financial incentives working better under a stable communist dictatorship, not about outlawing abortion or contraception or both. Income should be calculated on a per capita basis. Cultural differences in natality are probably the main explanation for the different birth-rates across different nationalities within the country.
The issue related to these differences in the Russian Federation, is that the highest birth-rates are in region populated more by non-Russians, and vice-versa. So the currently indications show fertility culture is highest amongst highly non-Russian nationality populated regions in the country, and lowest in the highly Russian populated regions. And this would undermine the entire purpose of the policy unless you add an emigration ban as well. And bearing in mind the divergence in birth-rates across different nationality-populated regions in the country, it would lead to increased rates of emigration of Russians vis a vis the non-Russian nationalities.
Having many children seems strongly associated with low-status, unfortunately. They strongly identified with their Scottish roots. Do Chechens pay a lot of taxes? So it could easily result in a worse situation for them. You are still young enough to have children later, but ultimately someone who has no children in life, unless they have generated a lot of income or made some other great contribution, are parasites.
This ought to be reflected in tax policy. Ideally, tax rate changes would also benefit those who are more educated and whose children would presumably contribute more, although this would be criticized as eugenics.
Or simply levying some sort of an exit tax on emigrants, perhaps having them pay back their subsidized educations or whatever. Being able to afford multiple children has become somewhat of a status symbol.
Afford the big home, afford the private schools to keep away from unruly lower class immigrants etc. Conversly sterilising the wrong people would work in conjunction with incentives. Lowers the tax burden, public schools would be attractive, multiple bedroom houses would be more afforable. The West is getting the worst of both worlds. Stats of child size by income are skewed by high numbers of Latinos and blacks on the poor end, who have many children.
I am somewhat confused by this and other similar comments — in the countries I know best US, France, Portugal , there are indeed substantial tax reductions for families with children. This is totally unfair. Essentially, a childless person will only be able to enjoy his pension because other people make it possible by raising the next generation and so ensuring that there still will be a society by the time he gets old.
But after it was mostly abolished, it outweighed the negatives even less, so that birthrates outright collapsed after Which is the case even for the more generous child support systems. Dmitry, there was a mini-baby boom in all of the republics at that time. There must have been a period of stability. I also remember something about the compulsory military service — the service would be cut from two years to one, if the family had the second child.
My dad came home from Kaliningrad when my sister was born, from what my mother told me. The skinnier the mom, the more status points. Meanwhile there will be a strong correlation between being lazy and stupid at school and not leaving your hometown in adulthood. With the little free time from work, aside from procrastinating on the internet — the most enjoyment in life is meeting girls, friends from other countries, buying nice things, travelling and having your own income.
I think this is very common and what organized people do when they have the opportunity. In the time of Alaric, Rome had population about k and whole Roman Empire about M decline from 80M peak, but no wasteland.
Nothing important happened in the fifth century except change of leadership. For average peasant serf it meant he would be serfing for German master who believes that Son was begotten by the Father, instead for Roman master who believes that Father and Son are of single essence.
The fall of Rome came in the sixth century, due to triple whammy of disasters, two natural, one man made. If you want to know why city of Rome ceased to exist and became a small village in the midst of ruins, here are the reasons:. But people do respond to incentives. Some women do choose to have children, some even choose to have many children.
The percentage of those will change according to financial incentives. If raising a child makes you considerably poorer, fewer people will want to have children, than if a substantial portion is paid for by the government. The early 90s were a real life post-apocalypse. By the way, some Japanese town apparently doubled its fertility by giving people money:.
But to reverse the demographic suicide of the West, particularly among the better educated and presumably more intelligent , will require a major change in attitudes and not only economic incentives. So far, I see no signs of this, on the contrary. At least, it seams that the time period during which people are healthy has increased in most countries, life expactancy has risen, while the time during which people are dependent on care at the end of their lives has not increased.
There are different opinions as to how life expectancy will further develop, I think it is likely to increase further, and people will be able to work longer — that is not very popular, but it makes sense to increase the age of retirement.
Furthermore, it depends on the kind of pension system to what degree the demographic changes are a problem. In Poland, they will most likely be a severe problem because pensions are almost exclusively financed with payments by currently working people. The more skilled or in demand profession you have trained in, the more opportunity there is to work abroad at instant middle class levels — which is really not bad.
Attempts to coerce our behaviour by government, are the last thing we need. That sounds terribly nihilistic tbh.
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The triple album release the second in a row by Harrison , hit No. The case dragged on for over a year, halting Springsteen's career. An out of court settlement was reached the following year. Skynyrd scored the US No. Member of the Rossington-Collins Band. It is usually said that the reason for the crowd's hostile reception was Dylan's 'abandoning' of the folk orthodoxy, or poor sound quality on the night or a combination of the two.
The album has sold an estimated 49 million copies worldwide to date, making it the second highest-selling album of all time, and the best-selling hard rock or heavy metal album.
Suspicion also surrounds the bass player who was reported to be working on instant communication and whose car was found at the base of a cliff - officially it was 'suicide'. Bonham and band manager Peter Grant had the help of their bodyguard in roughing up a security employee at the venue. After pleading guilty to misdemeanors, the accused settle out of court for two million dollars.
The tour would eventually be cancelled after Robert Plant's son died a few days later. An investigation into the accident showed that Collins had consumed a sizable amount of alcohol and was not wearing a seatbelt. He died from head injuries on the roadside shortly after the accident having been thrown through the windscreen. The police officer drove up to Dylan, who was wearing a blue jacket, and asked him his name, but she did not recognise him.
When he was unable to produce any identification, Dylan was driven to his hotel where staff were able to vouch for him. The incident happened when Dylan decided to go for a walk in the afternoon while on tour with Willie Nelson who were due to perform at the local baseball stadium with John Mellencamp.
The venue is home to one of Scotland's finest dance floors - famous for its bounce - which floats on fixed steel springs. The track which was first released in on the album Hunky Dory, features guest piano work by Yes keyboardist Rick Wakeman. The line "Look at those cavemen go" is a reference to the song "Alley Oop," a one-off hit in for American doo-wop band The Hollywood Argyles.
The musicians who were featured on the album were uncredited on the original release due to contractual difficulties , although the backing band was made up of members of the band Clover.
Had the US No. A study found empathetic people preferred more mellow, low-energy music, while those who were "systemisers" - people who seeked to analyse patterns in the world enjoyed punk, heavy metal and more complex music overall. Researchers at Cambridge University, England had recruited 4, participants and put them through a series of different tests. The single peaked at No.
The double album which consisted of a studio and a live record reached No. Paul reportedly was watching at a friend's home and was surprised by the news.
Jane went on to have a career in films and television as well as becoming a successful author and business woman. Okereke claimed he had been attacked by several men after approaching Lydon backstage at the Summercase festival.
He said the 'unprovoked' attack left him with a split lip and bruises. His body was found at a private home, Bennington apparently hanged himself. The singer was said to be close to Soundgarden vocalist Chris Cornell, who took his own life in May of this year. Formed in , Linkin Park had sold more than 70 million albums worldwide and won two Grammy Awards. While under arrest for heroin possession, with Police officers stationed at the door to her room.
Angry fans rioted throwing bottles and rocks after 3, tickets for the show turned out to be fake. The boss played a 45 minute set to an intimate crowd of Clemons, who died on June 18th of this year, was a prominent member of Bruce Springsteen's E Street Band, playing the tenor saxophone with him since His car was hit from behind by a tractor-trailer, causing the gas tank to explode.
He also played with bands including Whitesnake. He had been receiving treatment for pancreatic cancer since last August. Winter, who was instantly recognisable by his long white hair, worked with some of the greatest bluesmen, producing several albums for his childhood hero Muddy Waters - with whom he won a number of Grammys. Week commencing July 9. With the names of the tunes and the song's writers hand written on the label, each band member was to keep the inch 78 rpm disc for a week before passing it on.
Both recordings eventually ended up on Anthology 1. White joined The Byrds in , after the group had recorded 'Mr. This was the last that the duo performed together for nearly ten years. The singer had to postpone a Top Of The Pops recording due to the injuries. He was quickly diagnosed with leukaemia, and died within two hours.
His estranged wife wanted to honour her late husband's wishes and bury him next to former Dolls stars Johnny Thunders and Jerry Nolan in Mount St Mary's cemetery in Brooklyn, New York, but officials at the morgue refused to release his body for burial because his remains were so decomposed his body had laid in a morgue for over a month.
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